More on surveys: As part of a story you're covering on some environmental issue, say logging, you're asked to guage local public opinion. To do that, you need to prepare a survey of a select population. (Let's assume you have access to the names and addresses or e-mails of a random sample of that population, obtained from a list broker.) So you set out to formulate the questions.
Be careful: the questions have to be as neutral as possible, a very difficult task, especially in light of the politically charged atmosphere surrounding all environmental issues. Indeed, many fund raising organizations, on all sides of an issue, often send out "questionnaires" that ask highly loaded questions. They appear to be neutral, but are anything but.
For example, a pro-logging group might include in such a survey a question that asks: "Did you know that trees are a self-renewing energy resource?" What they do not explain is that it takes years and years for a woodland to renew the trees that have been logged, especially in cases of clear-cutting. And that, in the interim, logging can cause flooding and other ecological disasters. Or they might ask, "Do you think trees, which are self-regenerating, should take precedence over the right of people to work their way out of poverty?" Which assumes--tugging at the heart-strings--that logging is the only way for the population in question to make a living.
On the other side, an anti-logging group might ask, "Which of the following is more important: preserving our environment, or allowing giant lumber companies to reap huge profits while destroying our woodlands?" The bias here is obvious: all logging is bad. What they don't say is that some logging, done carefully, has been found to be ecologically beneficial, by allowing for new tree growth. And some lands, placed off-limits to logging, suddenly become susceptible to even more environmentally destructive developments, such as strip malls.
Regardless of your own position on an issue, as a journalist you need to formulate your questions to reflect as much disinterest as possible. Only then will you be able to tabulate answers that are statistically meaningful, and thereby generate a story that is honest. You might ask, for example:
"Loggers argue that trees are a renewable resource. Environmentalists argue that logging is overly destructive of the eco-system. Which of the two positions most accurately reflects your views?"
Then give options:
A) The loggers' position
B) The environmentalists' position
C) Both have equally valid points
D) Not sure
You're on the way to generating public opinion statistics that are not only valid, but that give you an exclusive.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Mini-Surveys
You're doing a story on public reaction to some local policy initiative, say a new park planned for the neighborhood. Normally, you go out and interview a few people, ask their views, and compile it into a story. But this time you want to get a more representative sample of public opinion than the views expressed by a few passersby. You do a Web or library search, and discover, alas, that no surveys have been done on this particular issue (call it the Park issue).
That means you have to do your own survey. But you don't have a background in statistics or market research. And you were never really good in those subjects anyway. No problem; it's a local story, so no need to hire a professional polling firm.
Your company allows you to buy, from a list broker, a list of randomly selected neighborhoood people, with their postal or e-mail addresses. (The random selection just means that the list is statistically representative of the community, so you're in good shape.) Your task now is to formulate the written questions. This is the most important part of your research.
Here's the wrong way to write it: "Do you support or oppose the new park planned for this neighborhood?"
Here's the right way: "Please indicate your position on the new park planned for this neighborhood:"
1) I support the park
2) I oppose the park
3) I'm not sure
Here's the wrong way for the next question: "Why do you support or oppose it?" Or: "Why aren't you sure?"
Here's the right way:
"If you support the park, please indicate why. Select as many reasons as apply:"
1) A park adds a much needed open-air resource to our congested neighborhood.
2) We need a safe place for children to play.
3) [Reason 3]
4) [Reason 4, etc.]
5) Other (explain): ______________________________
"If you oppose the park, please indicate why. Select as many reasons as apply:"
1) The park will raises taxes, which we cannot afford.
2) The park will require destroying our already small supply of affordable housing.
3) [Reason 3]
4) [Reason 4, etc.]
5) Other (explain): ______________________________
For those who are not sure, you can call or interview some of them later to discuss their hesitation.
Of course, there are other things to consider in conducting a survey. But the important point here is that written questions, unlike verbal questions, must be very tightly forumulated, with multiple choice options given to the respondents. That's what makes it possible to tabulate. It's what enables you to quantify public opinion: "X percent opposes the park, Y percent supports the park, Z percent are not sure."
And after you get the statistics, you can go back to interview some respondents to elaborate on their views.
That means you have to do your own survey. But you don't have a background in statistics or market research. And you were never really good in those subjects anyway. No problem; it's a local story, so no need to hire a professional polling firm.
Your company allows you to buy, from a list broker, a list of randomly selected neighborhoood people, with their postal or e-mail addresses. (The random selection just means that the list is statistically representative of the community, so you're in good shape.) Your task now is to formulate the written questions. This is the most important part of your research.
Here's the wrong way to write it: "Do you support or oppose the new park planned for this neighborhood?"
Here's the right way: "Please indicate your position on the new park planned for this neighborhood:"
1) I support the park
2) I oppose the park
3) I'm not sure
Here's the wrong way for the next question: "Why do you support or oppose it?" Or: "Why aren't you sure?"
Here's the right way:
"If you support the park, please indicate why. Select as many reasons as apply:"
1) A park adds a much needed open-air resource to our congested neighborhood.
2) We need a safe place for children to play.
3) [Reason 3]
4) [Reason 4, etc.]
5) Other (explain): ______________________________
"If you oppose the park, please indicate why. Select as many reasons as apply:"
1) The park will raises taxes, which we cannot afford.
2) The park will require destroying our already small supply of affordable housing.
3) [Reason 3]
4) [Reason 4, etc.]
5) Other (explain): ______________________________
For those who are not sure, you can call or interview some of them later to discuss their hesitation.
Of course, there are other things to consider in conducting a survey. But the important point here is that written questions, unlike verbal questions, must be very tightly forumulated, with multiple choice options given to the respondents. That's what makes it possible to tabulate. It's what enables you to quantify public opinion: "X percent opposes the park, Y percent supports the park, Z percent are not sure."
And after you get the statistics, you can go back to interview some respondents to elaborate on their views.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Percents, perhaps
This may seem hard to believe, but I have often had to explain to journalists, both seasoned and newcomers, how to compute a simple percent change between one number and another. I'm talking eighth or ninth grade math here. Blame for this ignorance can be shared by many: our education system, the explosion of calculators, the computer revolution, whatever. Anyway, the math is simple: You divide the later figure by the earlier figure and subtract 1. But you don't need to remember that. Just follow these few steps, using Excel or any other good spreadsheet.
First, of course, get the numbers. Say a small nonprofit organization issues a statement that it has taken in $354,600 in donations in 2009, versus $329,089 the year before. By what percent has the organization increased its fundraising?
Open the spreadsheet. In the first "cell," that is, A1, type in the year "2009."
1) Tab over to the second cell, or B1. Type in the year "2008."
5) Now tab over to C2. Here's where the computing starts: In C2, type this formula: =A2/B2-1.
6) You get 077522. That doesn't look like a percent, but it is. It's 7.8 percent. You can see that yourself by putting a decimal point after the 07. But here's an easier way (well, a more computer-savvy way):
7) Select the C2 cell, and search the formatting bar for the percent (%) sign. Click it. You'll see the C2 cell change to 8%. That's your answer, rounded. The organization increased its fundraising revenue by around 8 percent.
8) If you want a more precise figure, click on the "Increase decimal" icon on the formatting bar(near the % icon). That will change the 8% to 7.8%. Done.
First, of course, get the numbers. Say a small nonprofit organization issues a statement that it has taken in $354,600 in donations in 2009, versus $329,089 the year before. By what percent has the organization increased its fundraising?
Open the spreadsheet. In the first "cell," that is, A1, type in the year "2009."
1) Tab over to the second cell, or B1. Type in the year "2008."
2) Tab over to C1. Type in "Percent change."
3) Now tab back to A2 (which is just under A1). Type in $354,600.
4) Tab over to B2. Type in $329,089.
4) Tab over to B2. Type in $329,089.
5) Now tab over to C2. Here's where the computing starts: In C2, type this formula: =A2/B2-1.
6) You get 077522. That doesn't look like a percent, but it is. It's 7.8 percent. You can see that yourself by putting a decimal point after the 07. But here's an easier way (well, a more computer-savvy way):
7) Select the C2 cell, and search the formatting bar for the percent (%) sign. Click it. You'll see the C2 cell change to 8%. That's your answer, rounded. The organization increased its fundraising revenue by around 8 percent.
8) If you want a more precise figure, click on the "Increase decimal" icon on the formatting bar(near the % icon). That will change the 8% to 7.8%. Done.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
The importance of imports (and exports)
You may think that enough has been written about the relationship between the housing bust and our current Great Recession to render the issue over and out, but your editor insists that the subject is of lasting interest. S/he assigns you to come up with a new angle on it, and this time, you'll need to back up your quotes and statements with some hard statistical data--that you have to dig up yourself!
Ugh.
You can do it. The main source for this type of information is the U.S. Commerce Department, which has a treasure trove of data on almost every conceivable economic issue. The problem is, its websites are often confounding even to the most savvy users. Still, you'll need to check it out.
The story angle you come up with is this: Given the housing bust cum recession, what's happening with imports of home products, like furniture? Most furniture, like so many other things these days, is imported. So,then, are imports of, say, upholstery, up or down? And by how much?
Go to the Commerce Department site that will lead you to the data.
Don't freak over the zillion items you see on the page. Just click on the following, in order:
1) Country/Product Trade Data.
2) NAICS web application.*
3) In the "Select 3-digit NAICS" search box, hit the down arrow and search for "furniture and fixtures." Click on that.
4) Then click "Go." (This is a must; lots of users forget this step.)
5) In the search box that says "Select 6-digit NAICS," click on the down arrow, and look for upholstered household furniture. Click on that.
6) Then click "Go."
7) In the date box, select the month and year you want, which as of this writing is June 2009. (The most current month is the default, so you may leave it as is.)
8) Along the first line, which says "World," look for "Consumption Imports." Under that, look for "Customs Value Basis."
Voila! Here's your data: It shows that the U.S., in June 2009, imported $14,624,000 worth of upholstery.
So what you do with that figure? Compare it with June 2008 (go back up and set the date to June 2008). Click "Go." And look: a year ago during the same month, we imported $223,894,000 worth of upholstery.
Now you have your story: thanks most likely to the recession and housing slump, imports of upholstery plummeted over the year! It makes sense: People who don't buy new houses don't need to furnish them. So importers cut back. All that's left for you to do is embroider your story with quotes and comments.
_______________________
*NAICS, if you care, stands for North American Industry Classification System.
Ugh.
You can do it. The main source for this type of information is the U.S. Commerce Department, which has a treasure trove of data on almost every conceivable economic issue. The problem is, its websites are often confounding even to the most savvy users. Still, you'll need to check it out.
The story angle you come up with is this: Given the housing bust cum recession, what's happening with imports of home products, like furniture? Most furniture, like so many other things these days, is imported. So,then, are imports of, say, upholstery, up or down? And by how much?
Go to the Commerce Department site that will lead you to the data.
Don't freak over the zillion items you see on the page. Just click on the following, in order:
1) Country/Product Trade Data.
2) NAICS web application.*
3) In the "Select 3-digit NAICS" search box, hit the down arrow and search for "furniture and fixtures." Click on that.
4) Then click "Go." (This is a must; lots of users forget this step.)
5) In the search box that says "Select 6-digit NAICS," click on the down arrow, and look for upholstered household furniture. Click on that.
6) Then click "Go."
7) In the date box, select the month and year you want, which as of this writing is June 2009. (The most current month is the default, so you may leave it as is.)
8) Along the first line, which says "World," look for "Consumption Imports." Under that, look for "Customs Value Basis."
Voila! Here's your data: It shows that the U.S., in June 2009, imported $14,624,000 worth of upholstery.
So what you do with that figure? Compare it with June 2008 (go back up and set the date to June 2008). Click "Go." And look: a year ago during the same month, we imported $223,894,000 worth of upholstery.
Now you have your story: thanks most likely to the recession and housing slump, imports of upholstery plummeted over the year! It makes sense: People who don't buy new houses don't need to furnish them. So importers cut back. All that's left for you to do is embroider your story with quotes and comments.
_______________________
*NAICS, if you care, stands for North American Industry Classification System.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Corporate financial statements for dummies
Your publisher just laid off the entire financial reporting staff, and you, thrilled to keep your job but dreading dealing with numbers, are told to write a brief story, just a few column inches, based on a corporation's quarterly or annual report. The very kind that consists largely of columns of mind-numbing statistics, strange terms, densely packed data--everything you hate about financial information.
Don't fret, truly. It's much easier than you think.
First, get the data. If you can't get the latest annual (or quarterly) report at the company's website, go to the Securities and Exchange Commission website, and click on: Search for Company Filings. When the window opens, type in the name of the company (let's use The Home Depot for this example). A window will open with the company's name. Sometimes several companies have similar names, and they are listed here too; make sure you click on the correct one.
Another window will open, showing all the reports filed by the company. Look for the report labeled "10-K," and click on "documents." (If you're doing a quarterly report story, look for 4-Q.) In the next window, click on the first item, which will open the 10-K, otherwise known as the annual report.
The 10-K document opens. Don't bother reading the text. Just scroll down to a heading that says something like "Selected Financial Data" or "Consolidated Statement of Finances."
A financial page will appear. Don't panic: All you need are a few numbers: Net sales or revenue for the current year and the year before; and net income or earnings, also known as profit, for the two years.
These will give you a snapshot of how the company fared during the year compared with the year before. They will show you whether it took in more or fewer dollars this year through its sales, and whether it made a higher or lower profit--or even suffered a loss. If you can compute a percentage change between the two years for sales and profit--another very easy procedure--so much the better.
Want to appear more sophisticated? Check out the line that says "Operating expenses" for the two years. That will show you if the firm's expenses went up or down over the year. In other words, is the firm doing a good job controlling expenses, or a lousy job? Then you can use your journalistic skills to ask an appropriate company executive to explain why expenses went up, or down.
Executives are wont to complain that the net income or profit figure is somewhat misleading, since it has been lowered by things over which they have no control, such as taxes and interest payments. They say the real measure of how their company is doing is their "Operating income," which doesn't include taxes and interest. That's the figure, they say, that reflects how the company's own operations generate profit (or loss).
Okay, so you can use that figure in your story as well, but if you do, be sure to include it later on, rather than in the first paragraph: your primary audience is not the executives, but your readers: they want to know how the firm is doing overall, taxes and interest and everything else included.
Don't fret, truly. It's much easier than you think.
First, get the data. If you can't get the latest annual (or quarterly) report at the company's website, go to the Securities and Exchange Commission website, and click on: Search for Company Filings. When the window opens, type in the name of the company (let's use The Home Depot for this example). A window will open with the company's name. Sometimes several companies have similar names, and they are listed here too; make sure you click on the correct one.
Another window will open, showing all the reports filed by the company. Look for the report labeled "10-K," and click on "documents." (If you're doing a quarterly report story, look for 4-Q.) In the next window, click on the first item, which will open the 10-K, otherwise known as the annual report.
The 10-K document opens. Don't bother reading the text. Just scroll down to a heading that says something like "Selected Financial Data" or "Consolidated Statement of Finances."
A financial page will appear. Don't panic: All you need are a few numbers: Net sales or revenue for the current year and the year before; and net income or earnings, also known as profit, for the two years.
These will give you a snapshot of how the company fared during the year compared with the year before. They will show you whether it took in more or fewer dollars this year through its sales, and whether it made a higher or lower profit--or even suffered a loss. If you can compute a percentage change between the two years for sales and profit--another very easy procedure--so much the better.
Want to appear more sophisticated? Check out the line that says "Operating expenses" for the two years. That will show you if the firm's expenses went up or down over the year. In other words, is the firm doing a good job controlling expenses, or a lousy job? Then you can use your journalistic skills to ask an appropriate company executive to explain why expenses went up, or down.
Executives are wont to complain that the net income or profit figure is somewhat misleading, since it has been lowered by things over which they have no control, such as taxes and interest payments. They say the real measure of how their company is doing is their "Operating income," which doesn't include taxes and interest. That's the figure, they say, that reflects how the company's own operations generate profit (or loss).
Okay, so you can use that figure in your story as well, but if you do, be sure to include it later on, rather than in the first paragraph: your primary audience is not the executives, but your readers: they want to know how the firm is doing overall, taxes and interest and everything else included.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Converting currencies
You're doing a story comparing wages in Europe and the U.S. The European figures, of course, are in euros, and the U.S. figures are in dollars. To translate one into the other is simple: go to a typical currency conversion website, such as Yahoo's currency converter and enter the relevant boxes. That will give you today's exchange rate.
But what if you're comparing wage differences over a period of years, say between 2005 and the present? You can't use today's rate for the four years, because the rate changes--daily, in fact. And you can't simply select an arbitrary day for whatever year you're following, because the rate in January may be different from that in September. You need exchange rate averages. Here's how to get them, from a site not well known: Oanda.
In the "convert amount" box, type in the exact amount of euros (or any other currency you're dealing with).
In the "starting date" box, go to January 1, 2005.
In the "duration" box, scroll down to "year."
In the "ending date" box, go to whatever date you are writing on (in this case, today's date).
Under "base currency," scroll down to euros.
In the "quote currencies" box, scroll down to US dollar.
Then click "Get table." That will give you the average dollar amount--the average wages--for the period of 2005 through today. Readers can now tell which wages were higher during the period: European or American.
And if you want to be a bit more explanatory, do this for each year (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009). Then you can compute the annual percentage differences for each currency: how steeply wages rose or fell each year in Europe and in the U.S.
But what if you're comparing wage differences over a period of years, say between 2005 and the present? You can't use today's rate for the four years, because the rate changes--daily, in fact. And you can't simply select an arbitrary day for whatever year you're following, because the rate in January may be different from that in September. You need exchange rate averages. Here's how to get them, from a site not well known: Oanda.
In the "convert amount" box, type in the exact amount of euros (or any other currency you're dealing with).
In the "starting date" box, go to January 1, 2005.
In the "duration" box, scroll down to "year."
In the "ending date" box, go to whatever date you are writing on (in this case, today's date).
Under "base currency," scroll down to euros.
In the "quote currencies" box, scroll down to US dollar.
Then click "Get table." That will give you the average dollar amount--the average wages--for the period of 2005 through today. Readers can now tell which wages were higher during the period: European or American.
And if you want to be a bit more explanatory, do this for each year (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009). Then you can compute the annual percentage differences for each currency: how steeply wages rose or fell each year in Europe and in the U.S.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Research tips for writers who hate numbers
I'm not sure why, but many reporters I've worked with over the years, either colleagues or outside journalists calling for information, seem to have a strong aversion to crunching numbers. (I'm excluding, of course, financial reporters.) They have no problem quoting "experts" who offer this or that estimate--on anything from the growth of inflation to the exchange rate of euros to the percentage change in some corporation's quarterly operating income. But they rarely seek to develop their own estimates, let alone extract signifcance from a column of numerical data.
What I hope to do with this part of the blog is to provide some simple steps for such writers or editors to get the numerical information they need, without trepidation, and without having to chase after some academician or security analyst. Some of the tips will be super-simple, such as going to a particular website and following the prompts. Others will entail a few more steps. But whatever the process, I hope to present it as easily as possible.
First challenge: measuring inflation, or translating dollars from years past to today. Suppose you're doing a story that includes somebody's salary in the year 1975. You find out, through an interview, that he or she earned $9,000. How much is that in today's currency?
Do this: go to the website of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' inflation calculator. The caculator will appear. In the top box, type in $9000. In the second box, type in the year 1979. In the third box, type in 2009. Hit "calculate." The answer appears as $26,738.80; you can write something like "roughly $26,700."
Why "roughly?" Because the Bureau measures general consumer inflation, which is what most people are interested in. But that measure doesn't mean much to, say, a hospital or construction company or university, where costs tend to rise far more rapidly than basic consumer goods, like a basket of food. Later, we'll talk about how to measure inflation in those areas. For most purposes, though, the BLS estimate is appropriate: you don't need to call an economist to figure out what yesterday's prices mean in today's prices, or vice versa.
What I hope to do with this part of the blog is to provide some simple steps for such writers or editors to get the numerical information they need, without trepidation, and without having to chase after some academician or security analyst. Some of the tips will be super-simple, such as going to a particular website and following the prompts. Others will entail a few more steps. But whatever the process, I hope to present it as easily as possible.
First challenge: measuring inflation, or translating dollars from years past to today. Suppose you're doing a story that includes somebody's salary in the year 1975. You find out, through an interview, that he or she earned $9,000. How much is that in today's currency?
Do this: go to the website of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' inflation calculator. The caculator will appear. In the top box, type in $9000. In the second box, type in the year 1979. In the third box, type in 2009. Hit "calculate." The answer appears as $26,738.80; you can write something like "roughly $26,700."
Why "roughly?" Because the Bureau measures general consumer inflation, which is what most people are interested in. But that measure doesn't mean much to, say, a hospital or construction company or university, where costs tend to rise far more rapidly than basic consumer goods, like a basket of food. Later, we'll talk about how to measure inflation in those areas. For most purposes, though, the BLS estimate is appropriate: you don't need to call an economist to figure out what yesterday's prices mean in today's prices, or vice versa.
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